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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 42 for 3 yards (98-T.Jones; 23-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.80 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model