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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to BAL 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP