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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to BUF 6, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model