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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(:51) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model