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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIA
29.2%
SEA
70.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Skylar Thompson (MIA): -0.254 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIA starting Skylar Thompson in place of Tua Tagovailoa)
  • MIA offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than SEA

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

MIA

Grant DuBose WR Out Shoulder
Raheem Mostert RB Doubtful Chest
Malik Washington WR Doubtful Quadricep

SEA

Uchenna Nwosu LB Out Knee
George Fant T Out Knee
Jerome Baker LB Doubtful Hamstring
Kenneth Walker RB Doubtful Oblique
Laviska Shenault WR Questionable Foot
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Foot
Derick Hall LB Questionable Hip
Boye Mafe LB Questionable Knee
K'Von Wallace S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 3
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:54 FG SEA (10:54) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIA 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 06:48 TD SEA (6:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – SEA 9
  • Q1 00:15 FG MIA (:15) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – SEA 10
  • Q1 00:05 TD SEA (:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – SEA 16
  • Q4 05:02 TD SEA (5:02) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 67%

    (10:54) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 62%

    (8:41) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 19 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:46) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-48-B.Ferguson.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (:15) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:44) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 33-D.Williams. PENALTY on MIA-6-A.Walker, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (9:03) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 62%

    (6:27) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to MIA 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at SEA 48 for 44 yards (4-M.Dickson).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 19 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to MIA 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to SEA 31, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 33-D.Williams to SEA 39 for 8 yards (22-E.Campbell, 89-J.Hill).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:33) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to MIA 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 28%

    (8:02) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete short left to 0-B.Berrios (27-T.Woolen).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (6:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to SEA 18, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (10:26) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete short left to 28-D.Achane.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 16 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 65%

    (3:09) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep left to 84-E.Ezukanma [55-D.Jones].