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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 37

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model