Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

(4:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to MIA 8, Center-41-C.Stoll. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at SEA 48 for 44 yards (4-M.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.54 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model