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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to SEA 18, Center-48-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP