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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(8:02) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete short left to 0-B.Berrios (27-T.Woolen).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.44 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model