Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(12:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to SEA 31, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 33-D.Williams to SEA 39 for 8 yards (22-E.Campbell, 89-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.31 EP
62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model