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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

KC
50.8%
ATL
49.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (ATL): +0.145 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

KC

No players on the report.

ATL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 22
–
ATL 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:12 TD ATL (11:12) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 08:51 TD KC (8:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-0-L.Carter, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. KC 6 – ATL 7
  • Q2 06:44 TD ATL (6:44) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – ATL 13
  • Q2 02:48 FG KC (2:48) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 10 – ATL 14
  • Q2 00:11 FG KC (:11) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 13 – ATL 14
  • Q3 09:42 FG KC (9:42) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 16 – ATL 14
  • Q3 01:21 TD KC (1:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-G.Jarrett]. KC 22 – ATL 14
  • Q4 12:56 FG ATL (12:56) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. KC 22 – ATL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 64%

    (6:56) 4-R.Rice left end to ATL 38 for 1 yard (15-M.Judon, 97-G.Jarrett). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to KC 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 17-M.Hardman to KC 21 for 12 yards (51-D.Malone).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (2:48) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to KC 34, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-51-D.Malone.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:11) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to ATL 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 26-A.Williams to ATL 30 for 11 yards (34-S.Perine; 41-J.Winchester).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 87%

    (:11) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (9:42) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%

    (12:56) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to ATL 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 26-A.Williams to ATL 11 for 1 yard (21-J.Hicks). FUMBLES (21-J.Hicks), RECOVERED by KC-2-J.Williams at ATL 8. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to ATL 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 26-A.Williams to ATL 11 for 1 yard (21-J.Hicks).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-D.London to KC 11 for 7 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (4:08) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.London.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to ATL 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (:56) 7-B.Robinson left end to KC 16 for -3 yards (32-N.Bolton, 54-L.Chenal).