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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 4-R.Rice left end to ATL 38 for 1 yard (15-M.Judon, 97-G.Jarrett). Atlanta challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model