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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(:11) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.63 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model