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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to KC 34, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-51-D.Malone.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model