4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 86

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to ATL 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.54 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 86, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 44, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model