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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 5-D.London to KC 11 for 7 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model