4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

GB
55.1%
TEN
44.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Will Levis (TEN) -0.082 vs Malik Willis (GB) -0.334 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
TEN 20
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

GB

Jordan Morgan T Out Shoulder
Carrington Valentine CB Doubtful Ankle
Jordan Love QB Questionable Knee

TEN

Tyjae Spears RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 30
–
TEN 14

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:30 TD GB (12:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 07:18 TD TEN (7:18) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 84-N.Vannett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – TEN 6
  • Q1 01:08 FG GB (1:08) 44-B.Narveson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 10 – TEN 7
  • Q1 00:58 TD GB (:58) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Alexander at TEN 35. 23-J.Alexander for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – TEN 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG GB (:03) 44-B.Narveson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 20 – TEN 7
  • Q3 08:33 TD GB (8:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 31-Em.Wilson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – TEN 7
  • Q3 05:00 TD TEN (5:00) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – TEN 13
  • Q4 03:34 FG GB (3:34) 44-B.Narveson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 30 – TEN 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (1:08) 44-B.Narveson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 36 yards to GB 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 42%

    (8:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to GB 35, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 35.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 44-B.Narveson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:44) 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 37 for 0 yards (sack split by 7-Q.Walker and 58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to TEN 17, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 30 for 13 yards (22-R.Rochell, 85-T.Kraft).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 48%

    (13:02) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to TEN 10, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 21 for 11 yards (45-Er.Wilson; 90-L.Van Ness).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to GB 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-J.Reed to GB 32 for 12 yards (50-J.Gibbens).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 80%

    (3:34) 44-B.Narveson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:07) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: GB-90-L.Van Ness has returned to the game.