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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP