4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 44-B.Narveson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.34 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model