Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 14 – Green Bay Packers 27

(10:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to GB 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-J.Reed to GB 32 for 12 yards (50-J.Gibbens).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model