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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 3

Green Bay Packers 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 44-B.Narveson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP