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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 27 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to TEN 17, Center-42-M.Orzech. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 30 for 13 yards (22-R.Rochell, 85-T.Kraft).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model