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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NO
46.3%
DAL
53.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.183 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
DAL 26
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NO

D'Marco Jackson LB Out Calf
Khalen Saunders DT Out Calf
Bryan Bresee DT Questionable Illness
Isaiah Foskey DE Questionable Back
Taliese Fuaga T Questionable Back
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Hamstring
Jaylan Ford LB Questionable Hamstring
Derek Carr QB Note Player was ill this morning. Fully expected to play. No game status.

DAL

John Stephens WR Out Hamstring
Jake Ferguson TE Doubtful Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 44
–
DAL 19

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:54 TD NO (10:54) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 04:19 FG DAL (4:19) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NO 7 – DAL 3
  • Q1 04:14 TD NO (4:14) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-O.Odighizuwa]. NO 13 – DAL 3
  • Q2 11:42 FG DAL (11:42) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NO 14 – DAL 6
  • Q2 09:41 TD NO (9:41) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – DAL 6
  • Q2 07:54 TD DAL (7:54) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 21 – DAL 12
  • Q2 02:54 TD NO (2:54) 41-A.Kamara left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – DAL 13
  • Q2 00:41 TD NO (:41) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 34 – DAL 13
  • Q2 00:05 FG DAL (:05) 17-B.Aubrey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NO 35 – DAL 16
  • Q3 09:08 FG DAL (9:08) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. NO 35 – DAL 19
  • Q3 01:14 TD NO (1:14) 41-A.Kamara left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 41 – DAL 19
  • Q4 05:15 FG NO (5:15) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. NO 44 – DAL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 51%

    (7:08) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to NO 40 for 4 yards (90-B.Bresee).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (4:19) 17-B.Aubrey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 15 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (11:42) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (13:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Spann-Ford (5-W.Harris).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:43) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 87
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Brooks (29-P.Adebo).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (5:15) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:17) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to NO 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.