Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 41 – Dallas Cowboys 19

(9:43) 43-M.Hayball punts 49 yards to DAL 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model