Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 87

Dallas Cowboys 19 – New Orleans Saints 41

(7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Brooks (29-P.Adebo).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.99 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 87, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP