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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 8

New Orleans Saints 41 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP