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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 19 – New Orleans Saints 41

What Actually Happened

(13:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 89-B.Spann-Ford (5-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model