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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model