4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

HOU
42.8%
IND
57.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Anthony Richardson (IND): +0.072 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

HOU

M.J. Stewart S Out Knee

IND

Josh Downs WR Out Ankle
Matt Gay K Questionable Hernia

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 29
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:48 FG HOU (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 05:20 TD IND (5:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – IND 6
  • Q1 01:42 FG HOU (1:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 11:35 TD HOU (11:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 1-S.Diggs for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 12 – IND 7
  • Q3 11:00 FG HOU (11:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 15 – IND 7
  • Q3 05:43 TD IND (5:43) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 15 – IND 13
  • Q4 13:45 TD HOU (13:45) 28-J.Mixon left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 21 – IND 13
  • Q4 12:22 TD IND (12:22) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep right to 16-A.Dulin for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 22 – IND 19
  • Q4 04:45 TD HOU (4:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 1-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 28 – IND 20
  • Q4 02:20 TD IND (2:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 29 – IND 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%

    (11:44) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Mitchell.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 51%

    (9:38) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 9-B.Jordan to IND 41 for 3 yards (32-J.Blackmon, 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 78%

    (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (1:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-35-C.Lammons.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:36) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to IND 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 76%

    (11:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:49) 6-T.Townsend punt is BLOCKED by 50-S.Olubi, Center-46-J.Weeks, RECOVERED by IND-43-T.Denbow at HOU 5.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (4:45) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 1-S.Diggs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%

    (2:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.