Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 6

(:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-35-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model