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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Mitchell.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.35 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model