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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 89

Houston Texans 12 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to IND 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 89, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model