Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 15

(9:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model