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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Houston Texans 29

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model