Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- SF offense: +0.217 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.230 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.161 EPA/dropback
- DET defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 21
DET
No players on the report.
SF
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:27 TD DET (13:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Williams right end for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – SF 0
- Q1 02:37 TD DET (2:37) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – SF 0
- Q2 13:52 TD SF (13:52) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 14 – SF 6
- Q2 06:01 TD DET (6:01) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – SF 7
- Q2 00:10 FG DET (:10) 17-M.Badgley 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 24 – SF 7
- Q3 11:06 FG SF (11:06) 4-J.Moody 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. DET 24 – SF 10
- Q3 05:22 TD SF (5:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – SF 16
- Q3 03:04 TD SF (3:04) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – SF 23
- Q4 09:56 FG SF (9:56) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. DET 24 – SF 27
- Q4 03:06 TD SF (3:06) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – SF 33
- Q4 01:00 TD DET (1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 9-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 30 – SF 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%
(7:58) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 41%
(10:23) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to SF 12, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
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Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(5:09) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to DET 19, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at DET 29 for 10 yards (89-C.Woerner).
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Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(:10) 17-M.Badgley 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
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Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 86%
(11:06) 4-J.Moody 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 82%
(7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 8-J.Reynolds.
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Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:13) 3-J.Fox punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
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Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(9:56) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 79%
(7:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.St. Brown.
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Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%
(1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 9-J.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.