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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 4-J.Moody 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model