Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 2 at the 28
Detroit Lions 24 – San Francisco 49ers 10
What Actually Happened
(7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 8-J.Reynolds.
The Three Options
GO
+2.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.29 EP
- 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
KICK
+1.16 EP
- 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
