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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 21 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 17-M.Badgley 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP