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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 46

Detroit Lions 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to SF 12, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP