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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.67 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model