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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Monday 2024-01-15 · 16:30 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 10.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

PIT
32.2%
BUF
67.8%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: -0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 18
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

PIT

T.J. Watt LB Out Knee

BUF

Gabe Davis WR Out Knee
Taylor Rapp S Out Calf
Rasul Douglas CB Questionable Knee
Tyrel Dodson LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 TD BUF (7:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 04:15 TD BUF (4:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 07:12 TD BUF (7:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BUF 20
  • Q2 01:43 TD PIT (1:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BUF 21
  • Q3 08:54 FG PIT (8:54) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 10 – BUF 21
  • Q3 01:36 FG BUF (1:36) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PIT 10 – BUF 24
  • Q4 10:37 TD PIT (10:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-C.Austin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – BUF 24
  • Q4 06:37 TD BUF (6:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – BUF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 25%

    (12:41) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to BUF 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:28) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to PIT 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:20) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:50) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PIT 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:17) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (2:23) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (57-M.Adams), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at BUF 34. 51-Ni.Herbig to BUF 33 for 1 yard (85-Q.Morris).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:35) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to PIT 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-C.Austin to PIT 40 for 12 yards (42-D.Williams).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (8:54) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:28) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 46 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (1:36) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Pickens.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.