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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model