Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

(13:35) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to PIT 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-C.Austin to PIT 40 for 12 yards (42-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model