4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -3.27 EP
KICK -2.11 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model