Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Buffalo Bills 31

(4:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short right to 14-G.Pickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

What Happened

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model