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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to PIT 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP