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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-7 HC Todd Bowles
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Green Bay Packers

6-8 HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 13:00 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TB
41.8%
GB
58.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 22 15–29
–
GB 25 18–32
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

TB

Carlton Davis CB Out Groin
William Gholston DE Out Knee
Ryan Neal S Doubtful Back
Vita Vea DT Doubtful Toe
Jamel Dean CB Questionable Ankle
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Knee
Zach Triner LS Questionable Elbow
Devin White LB Questionable Foot

GB

Christian Watson WR Doubtful Hamstring
Darnell Savage S Questionable Shoulder
Eric Stokes CB Questionable Hamstring
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Shoulder
A.J. Dillon RB Questionable Thumb
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Knee
Quay Walker DT Questionable Shoulder
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 34
–
GB 20

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 FG TB (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – GB 0
  • Q1 00:54 TD GB (:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – GB 6
  • Q2 12:26 TD TB (12:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – GB 7
  • Q2 07:13 FG GB (7:13) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. TB 10 – GB 10
  • Q2 00:14 FG TB (:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 13 – GB 10
  • Q3 11:01 TD TB (11:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – GB 10
  • Q3 04:26 TD GB (4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – GB 16
  • Q3 00:26 TD TB (:26) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 41-K.Kieft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – GB 17
  • Q4 10:07 FG GB (10:07) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. TB 27 – GB 20
  • Q4 06:40 TD TB (6:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 19-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 33 – GB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Reed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (7:13) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:44) 5-J.Camarda punts 65 yards to GB 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-38-D.Pitts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to TB 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 81%

    (:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:31) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to TB 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 13 yards (34-J.Owens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (10:07) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 78%

    (4:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at TB 49 for -19 yards (sack split by 7-S.Barrett and 54-L.David). FUMBLES (7-S.Barrett) [54-L.David], RECOVERED by TB-90-L.Hall at GB 49. 90-L.Hall to GB 49 for no gain (63-R.Walker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 52%

    (3:25) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to GB 38 for 3 yards (97-K.Clark, 34-J.Owens).

    See the full breakdown →