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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to GB 38 for 3 yards (97-K.Clark, 34-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.61 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model