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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model