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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 5-J.Camarda punts 65 yards to GB 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-38-D.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model